General EvidenceInsights

SHEIN & Temu Basket Size After the EU Customs Change

Results as of

Review Jan–Aug 2026: China-platform basket sizes jumped 38% to €56.83 after the EU's July 2026 customs reform, while order frequency fell 24% as buyers consolidated purchases

SHEIN & Temu Basket Size After the EU Customs ChangeLine chart showing monthly average order value in euros for two groups — SHEIN and Temu combined (China cross-border) and H&M and Zara combined (EU-based) — from January to August 2026, with a vertical marker at July 2026 indicating the EU customs policy change. The SHEIN/Temu line rises sharply from July onward; the H&M/Zara line remains comparatively flat.Line chart showing monthly average order value in euros for two groups — SHEIN and Temu combined (China cross-border) and H&M and Zara combined (EU-based) — from January to August 2026, with a vertical marker at July 2026 indicating the EU customs policy change. The SHEIN/Temu line rises sharply from July onward; the H&M/Zara line remains comparatively flat.
Line chart showing monthly average order value in euros for two groups — SHEIN and Temu combined (China cross-border) and H&M and Zara combined (EU-based) — from January to August 2026, with a vertical marker at July 2026 indicating the EU customs policy change. The SHEIN/Temu line rises sharply from July onward; the H&M/Zara line remains comparatively flat.
Info
Sample size
n = 12,466
Data date
Jan–Aug 2026
Segment
All segments
Platform
Purchases
Market
Germany

Analysis

The EU's abolition of the €150 duty-free threshold on 1 July 2026 left a clear and immediate footprint in German buyer behavior. Average basket sizes for SHEIN and Temu combined rose 38% to €56.83 in the weeks following the change, while order frequency dropped 24% — a textbook consolidation response to per-shipment cost increases.

After the €150 Zollfreigrenze ends

From 1 July 2026, every parcel from a non-EU seller now carries a €3 duty per item category, replacing the two-decade-old exemption that let sub-€150 packages enter the EU duty-free. Rational shoppers respond by bundling — ordering fewer times but adding more items per basket to spread the fixed cost. The EU-based H&M and Zara control group showed no comparable shift in the same period, confirming the effect is specific to China-direct sourcing. Both SHEIN and Temu had already moved significant inventory into EU warehouses ahead of July — orders fulfilled from EU stock are exempt from the per-item duty — but a material share of China-direct orders persisted, and those buyers adjusted visibly. The €3 interim regime runs until July 2028, when full product-category tariffs replace the flat fee.

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Methodology

Monthly average order values are calculated from email-confirmed purchases by verified German buyers on SHEIN and Temu (China-direct treatment group) and H&M and Zara (EU-based control group), covering January through August 2026. Pre-period is January–June 2026; post-period is July–August 2026. The difference-in-differences design compares the change in basket size and order frequency between the two groups across the policy cutoff date of 1 July 2026.

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